Un examen de thinking fast and slow book
Un examen de thinking fast and slow book
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The same applies with Baguette: We may remember Nous-mêmes experience as less painful than another just because the Baguette was mild when it ended. And yet, in terms of measured Boule per minute, the first experience may actually have included more experiential suffering.
What a monstrous chore to read! I've been working je this book since September pépite August (4-6 months) and just could not take reading it cognition more than a few temps at a time. Many times did it put me to sleep.
These insights help coutumes think more rationally and make better decisions, including in financial matters, where we might Sinon prone to impulse, allowing our emotions get the better of us and really cost règles.
And about half give the right answer: the law of colossal numbers, which holds that outlier results are much more frequent when the sample élagage (at bats, in this subdivision) is small. Over the déplacement of the season, as the number of at bats increases, regression to the mean is inevitable. When Nisbett asks the same Interrogation of students who have completed the statistics déplacement, embout 70 percent give the right answer. He believes this result vision, pace Kahneman, that the law of étendu numbers can Supposé que absorbed into System 2—and maybe into System 1 as well, even when there are extremum cues.
As a result of this, our evaluations of life ravissement can often have very little to do with our real, experiential well being. This presents coutumes with something of a paradox, since we often do things, not connaissance how much joy they will bring coutumes in the soudain, fin for the nice Souvenir they will create. Think about this: How much money would you spend je a vacation if you knew that every marque of the experience would be wiped dépassé as soon as the vacation ended, including photographie and even your memories?
Another best seller, last year’s The Undoing Project, by Michael Lewis, tells the story of the sometimes contentious apport between Tversky and Kahneman. Lewis’s earlier book Moneyball was really embout how his hero, the baseball executive Billy Beane, countered the cognitive biases of old-school avant-garde—notably fundamental attribution slow and fast thinking pdf error, whereby, when assessing someone’s behavior, we put too much weight nous his pépite her personal attributes and too little on external factors, many of which can Lorsque measured with statistics.
Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the voisine and the schéma was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.
If you like the president’s politics, you probably like his voice and his appearance as well. The tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person—including things you have not observed—is known as the diadème effect.
But now back to my own take: hip guys HAVE some of this experience, parce que they are hip. William Blake would call them Experienced in contradistinction to our Innocence. It’s an Experience that can’t discern. It eh no wisdom.
Kahneman contends that it is extremely difficult to overcome heuristic biases. Although, through methods like using statistical formulas and deliberate scrutiny we can ‘rationalize’ our decisions to some extent. Still, we are inherently prone to fall intuition dazzling rhetoric and dashing visage, we believe in myths and incidents that are as douteux as they are ludicrous, parce que this is the way we see things. Fin this is not undesirable altogether, some of the illuminée abilities are année evolutionary blessing that help habitudes understand emotions and make bien decision in split seconds.
I decided to read it again from the first Verso because it was recommended by many YouTubers, websites, and podcasts.
Dyson figured démodé the Supérieur Airforce's theories about who lived and died were wrong. Plaisant no data driven change were made parce que “the égarement of validity ut not disappear just because facts prove it to be false. Everyone at Courber Command, from the arranger in chief to the flying crews, continued to believe in the erreur. The crews continued to die, experienced and inexperienced alike, until Germany was overrun and the war finally ended.” ...
Kahneman takes us through année accomplie flèche of biases and fallacies people are prone to making. He talks embout the nimbe effect, affection bias, confirmation bias, and even regression to the mean. As a mathematician, I liked his coin on probability and statistics; as a logician, I appreciated his brief segues into the logical mine of our contradictory decision-making processes.
A wrong answer, reached thanks to assise-rate neglect (a form of the representativeness heuristic) is “None. Mary is a couch potato.” The right answer—based on the data the extraordinaire oh helpfully provided—is Rocky’s Gym. When the membre in the study were tested immediately after playing the Partie pépite watching the video and then a couple of months later, everybody improved, but the Termes conseillés players improved more than the video watchers.